WP9

Work package number 9
Months 28 - 36

Objectives

The objective of WP9 is to define and run different policy scenario using the newly developed SUST-RUS model and check the robustness of the simulation results.

Description of work

Task 9.1 – Policy Scenarios
As an application we envisioned to run different policy scenarios related to international, environmental and social aspects.

Task 9.1.1 – Definition of Policy Scenarios
The aim of this task is to define the specific policy scenarios that will be analyzed. Possible, highly relevant scenarios  could deal with:

1. Integration of Russia into the European Trading Scheme (ETS) for emission-intensive installations.
2. Dependence of the European economy on energy imports from Russia.
3. Effects of adjusting Russian gas prices to world prices for the users of energy in different regions of Russia according to “The Energy strategy of Russia for the period of up to 2020”.

All project partners ZEW, CEFIR and TML will work together on the precise definitions

Task 9.1.2 – Assessment of Policy Scenarios
After defining the policy scenarios in Task 9.1.1 ZEW will run these scenarios and describe and discuss the simulation outcome. Furthermore, we will examine the simulation results using the methodology for policy assessment defined in Task 4.5.
Task leader: ZEW

Task 9.2 – Sensitivity Analysis
An important feature of the model development is to check the reliability and robustness of the model. This Task therefore assesses systematic sensitivity analysis that evaluates the model outcomes by variations of the most important parameters (e.g. substitution elasticities). In addition, the model outcomes are compared to the findings on related topics in the literature.
Task leader: ZEW

Deliverables
D9.1: Assessment of the model reliability and sensitivity analysis (Month 34)
D9.2: Assessment of  policy scenarios (Month 36)
D9.3 The spatial-economic-ecological model for Russia coupled with the consistent database